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If you can think for yourself while being open-minded in a clearheaded way to find out what is best for you to do, and if you can summon up the courage to do it, you will make the most of your life.
By failing well, I mean being able to experience painful failures that provide big learnings without failing badly enough to get knocked out of the game.
To make money in the markets, one needs to be an independent thinker who bets against the consensus and is right.
“How do I know I’m right?”
both decision-making systems—i.e., mine in my head
shows how these principles can be applied to most anything
“If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away.”
while almost everyone expects the future to be a slightly modified version of the present, it is usually very different.
prices reflect people’s expectations, so they go up when actual results are better than expected and they go down when they are worse than expected. And most people tend to be biased by their recent experiences.
Over the decades since, I’ve repeatedly seen policymakers deliver such assurances immediately before currency devaluations, so I learned not to believe government policymakers when they assure you that they won’t let a currency devaluation happen.
sequence. In this case, the debt-financed overspending of the 1960s had continued into the early 1970s.
more easy credit, which led to even more spending.
I found it much more practical to measure demand as the amount spent (instead of as the quantity bought) and to look at who the buyers and sellers were and why they bought and sold.
you can never be sure of anything:
It’s senseless to have making money as your goal as money has no intrinsic value—its value comes from what it can buy, and it can’t buy everything.
It’s smarter to start with what you really want, which are your real goals, and then work back to what
you need to atta...
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When thinking about the things you really want, it pays to think of their relative values so you weigh them properly.
write down my thoughts every day so others could understand my logic and help improve
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it occurred to me that in economic terms a chicken can be seen as a simple machine consisting of a chick plus its feed.
