More on this book
Community
Kindle Notes & Highlights
Read between
May 6 - May 27, 2018
New technology is not simply the slow accumulation of better and better things.
“New technology is not simply the slow accumulation of better and better things.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 1 Introduction Soonish. Emphasis on the Ish, p. 1 of 358, 1%.
A given future technology may need any number of intermediate technologies to develop beforehand, and many of them may appear to be irrelevant when they are first discovered.
“A given future technology may need any number of intermediate technologies to develop beforehand, and many of them may appear to be irrelevant when they are first discovered.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 1 Introduction Soonish. Emphasis on the Ish, p. 3 of 358, 1%.
The contingent nature of technological development is why we don’t have a lunar base, even though we thought we would by now, but we do have pocket-sized supercomputers, which few people saw coming.*
“The contingent nature of technological development is why we don’t have a lunar base, even though we thought we would by now, but we do have pocket-sized supercomputers, which few people saw coming.*”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 1 Introduction Soonish. Emphasis on the Ish, p. 6 of 358, 2%.
We now know that the ancient Greeks could create complex gear systems, but never constructed an advanced clock. The ancient Alexandrians had a rudimentary steam engine but never designed a train. The ancient Egyptians invented the folding stool four thousand years ago, but never built an IKEA.
“We now know that the ancient Greeks could create complex gear systems, but never constructed an advanced clock. The ancient Alexandrians had a rudimentary steam engine but never designed a train. The ancient Egyptians invented the folding stool four thousand years ago, but never built an IKEA.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 1 Introduction Soonish. Emphasis on the Ish, p. 6 of 358, 2%.
Physics behaves. Economics doesn’t. According to economist Dr. Bryan Caplan of George Mason University, “Competition is the key. If a single firm hits the mother lode of platinum, it can hold back most of its stockpile to avoid flooding the market. If many firms share the mother lode, in contrast, each is likely to rush to sell off its platinum before its rivals do. Given the high fixed cost of space travel, asteroid mining is very likely to start with few firms, giving first movers a great opportunity to profit from whatever resources they find. Over time, however, success breeds imitation,
...more
“Physics behaves. Economics doesn’t. According to economist Dr. Bryan Caplan of George Mason University, “Competition is the key. If a single firm hits the mother lode of platinum, it can hold back most of its stockpile to avoid flooding the market. If many firms share the mother lode, in contrast, each is likely to rush to sell off its platinum before its rivals do. Given the high fixed cost of space travel, asteroid mining is very likely to start with few firms, giving first movers a great opportunity to profit from whatever resources they find. Over time, however, success breeds imitation, so later generations of asteroid miners should beware.””
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 3 Asteroid Mining Rummaging Through the Solar System’s Junkyard, p. 56 of 358, 13%.
Hydrogen is the lightest element in the periodic table, and its nucleus is just one charged particle, called a proton. But as with all elements, there isn’t just one form of hydrogen. There are many, and the different types are called isotopes. What’s different about different isotopes? The number of chargeless particles in their nucleus. These are called neutrons.
“Hydrogen is the lightest element in the periodic table, and its nucleus is just one charged particle, called a proton. But as with all elements, there isn’t just one form of hydrogen. There are many, and the different types are called isotopes. What’s different about different isotopes? The number of chargeless particles in their nucleus. These are called neutrons.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 4 Fusion Power It Powers the Sun, and That’s Nice, but Can It Run My Toaster? p. 73 of 358, 16%.
Project Plowshare. Between 1961 and 1973, under this program the United States conducted thirty-five individual nuclear detonations as part of twenty-seven tests. Each explosion had multiple research objectives, from examining products of the reaction to just straight up seeing how big a boom we could make.
“Between 1961 and 1973, under [Project Plowshare] the United States conducted thirty-five individual nuclear detonations as part of twenty-seven tests. Each explosion had multiple research objectives, from examining products of the reaction to just straight up seeing how big a boom we could make.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 4 Fusion Power, p. 97 of 358, 22%.
The silver lining to the nuclear cloud was that it sped the development of the modern environmental movement. One of the strange things about this project was that they repeatedly hired environmental scientists to determine whether the blast would cause problems. These scientists found that, yes indeed, ecosystems and the people who live in them don’t like giant radiation doses. At this point, invariably, the people in charge of Plowshare brushed them off. This resentment among intelligent professionals fused with resentment among targeted communities to produce some of the first modern
...more
“The silver lining to the nuclear cloud was that it sped the development of the modern environmental movement. One of the strange things about this project was that they repeatedly hired environmental scientists to determine whether the blast would cause problems. These scientists found that, yes indeed, ecosystems and the people who live in them don’t like giant radiation doses. At this point, invariably, the people in charge of Plowshare brushed them off. This resentment among intelligent professionals fused with resentment among targeted communities to produce some of the first modern environmental protests.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 4 Fusion Power, p. 97 of 358, 22%.
In case you’re wondering, the Soviet Union had a comparable program, called Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy, which lasted right up until that nation’s dissolution. If you go to Google and search for “Lake Chagan,” you will find an oddly circular lake in Kazakhstan, which was formerly a Soviet republic. You can probably also find a video that shows the instant of its creation. And, creepily enough, there are some propaganda shots of a guy swimming in the lake shortly after it was filled from a nearby reservoir. Here’s hoping he had good health insurance.
“In case you’re wondering, the Soviet Union had a comparable program, called Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy, which lasted right up until that nation’s dissolution. If you go to Google and search for “Lake Chagan,” you will find an oddly circular lake in Kazakhstan, which was formerly a Soviet republic. You can probably also find a video that shows the instant of its creation. And, creepily enough, there are some propaganda shots of a guy swimming in the lake shortly after it was filled from a nearby reservoir. Here’s hoping he had good health insurance.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 4 Fusion Power, p. 100 of 358, 23%.
That is because your computer is already “programmable matter.” It can run any program, display any image, make any sound, connect to any device (well, if you can find the cord and Windows didn’t break it). And these programs, sounds, images, and so on are not permanently embedded into the computer, like with a photograph or a record or the physical mechanism of a steam engine.
“Question: Why do you use your computer so much more than your bike? . . . Because your computer is already “programmable matter.” It can run any program, display any image, make any sound, connect to any device (well, if you can find the cord and Windows didn’t break it). And these programs, sounds, images, and so on are not permanently embedded into the computer, like with a photograph or a record or the physical mechanism of a steam engine.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 101 of 358, 23%.
MIT’s Dr. Erik Demaine explains his enthusiasm about programmable matter like this: “To me the exciting thing about programmable matter is the idea of making gadgets that could serve many functions. I can imagine my bicycle turning into a chair when I wanted to sit down and not ride around. Then it becomes my laptop. Or my cell phone unfolds into a laptop. . . . We live in a computational world where software is reprogrammable. . . . Programmable matter represents doing the same thing for hardware. . . . If you want to get the latest cell phone, you have to go out and buy some physical stuff.
...more
“MIT’s Dr. Erik Demaine explains his enthusiasm about programmable matter like this: “To me the exciting thing about programmable matter is the idea of making gadgets that could serve many functions. I can imagine my bicycle turning into a chair when I wanted to sit down and not ride around. Then it becomes my laptop. Or my cell phone unfolds into a laptop. . . . We live in a computational world where software is reprogrammable. . . . Programmable matter represents doing the same thing for hardware. . . . If you want to get the latest cell phone, you have to go out and buy some physical stuff. In the future we can imagine that the same stuff we have can rearrange itself into a new model. That’s the dream.””
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 102 of 358, 23%.
Programmable matter is about endowing physical objects with information. This may be literal bits and bytes in an onboard computer or it may be “knowledge” embedded in the structure of an object, via its shape and material makeup. This makes the field of programmable matter pretty diverse.
“Programmable matter is about endowing physical objects with information. This may be literal bits and bytes in an onboard computer or it may be “knowledge” embedded in the structure of an object, via its shape and material makeup. This makes the field of programmable matter pretty diverse.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 103 of 358, 23%.
There are a number of ways to make origami robots, but the basic principle is simple: You have a flat material that permits a certain set of folds. Along those folds there are actuators—a fancy word for a machine part that can move—that cause the fold to fold itself. The “paper” contains the circuitry to talk to a computer, so you can simply program the robot to bend along the right folds at the right times. Because the machine can continue to fold even after it reaches its desired form, it can do things regular origami can’t, like walking around or grabbing things.
“There are a number of ways to make origami robots, but the basic principle is simple: You have a flat material that permits a certain set of folds. Along those folds there are actuators—a fancy word for a machine part that can move—that cause the fold to fold itself. The “paper” contains the circuitry to talk to a computer, so you can simply program the robot to bend along the right folds at the right times. Because the machine can continue to fold even after it reaches its desired form, it can do things regular origami can’t, like walking around or grabbing things.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 105 of 358, 24%.
Using space efficiently is already an issue in dense, expensive cities. One idea is to have individual rooms that can do many things. If you think about it, a room is just a box that keeps nature out and Internet in. We designate different rooms based on their individual uses, but in principle, you could live in a single room that is able to change itself based on your needs right this second.
“Using space efficiently is already an issue in dense, expensive cities. One idea is to have individual rooms that can do many things. If you think about it, a room is just a box that keeps nature out and Internet in. We designate different rooms based on their individual uses, but in principle, you could live in a single room that is able to change itself based on your needs right this second.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 108 of 358, 25%.
LIT ROOM. It’s a room that has walls that can move, both in the sense of shifting location and of bending to become convex or concave. It has a projector that casts images onto the walls, and small speakers create background noise. But the really clever part is that it interacts with the users. The target audience is children who are currently listening to a story being read aloud. When the reader gets to certain points, the environment adjusts, perhaps simulating a mountaintop or a rainstorm. Imagine it! Someone reads Oliver Twist, and you can really smell the grinding poverty!
“The LIT ROOM [is] a room that has walls that can move, both in the sense of shifting location and of bending to become convex or concave. It has a projector that casts images onto the walls, and small speakers create background noise. But the really clever part is that it interacts with the users. The target audience is children who are currently listening to a story being read aloud. When the reader gets to certain points, the environment adjusts, perhaps simulating a mountaintop or a rainstorm. Imagine it! Someone reads Oliver Twist, and you can really smell the grinding poverty!”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 110 of 358, 25%.
in the 1950s, one gigabyte of memory weighed about 250 tons, and you can now carry SD cards capable of holding hundreds of gigabytes in your pocket.
“In the 1950s, one gigabyte of memory weighed about 250 tons, and you can now carry SD cards capable of holding hundreds of gigabytes in your pocket.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 118 of 358, 27%.
Another thing your body does is to change its exterior under certain conditions. For example, when wet for a long time, your fingertips get pruney. Nobody knows for sure why this is, but there’s a pretty good argument that it’s an evolutionary adaptation to give you better gripping ability when it’s wet out.*
“Another thing your body does is to change its exterior under certain conditions. For example, when wet for a long time, your fingertips get pruney. Nobody knows for sure why this is, but there’s a pretty good argument that it’s an evolutionary adaptation to give you better gripping ability when it’s wet out.*”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 5 Programmable Matter: What If All of Your Stuff Could Be Any of Your Stuff? p. 126 of 358, 29%.
One company called Construction Robotics has created a robot called SAM, the “semi-automated mason.” SAM is awesome. If you have a minute, go to YouTube for videos of SAM laying down brick walls like it’s fun.
“One company called Construction Robotics has created a robot called SAM, the “semi-automated mason.” SAM is awesome. If you have a minute, go to YouTube for videos of SAM laying down brick walls like it’s fun.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 6 Robotic Construction, p. 140 of 358, 33%.
Dr. Noah Smith, economics columnist for Bloomberg View, tells us, “The real danger of the ‘rise of the robots’ is not that they’ll take all our jobs, but that they’ll cause continually increasing inequality.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 6 Robotic Construction, p. 140 of 358, 33%.
A few people have tried using augmented reality for therapeutic reasons. Our favorite experimental therapy was by Dr. Cristina Botella, who had the idea that you could cure phobias using AR. See, one of the best ways to get over an irrational fear is repeated exposure to it. But there’s this problem. When you take someone who’s afraid of roaches and make her repeatedly get in a box filled with roaches, she might decide to find a new psychiatrist. Or, as the scientists say, you’ll have a “high rate of attrition.” Dr. Botella wondered if you could work out a compromise, where you simply project
...more
“A few people have tried using augmented reality for therapeutic reasons. Our favorite experimental therapy was by Dr. Cristina Botella, who had the idea that you could cure phobias using AR. See, one of the best ways to get over an irrational fear is repeated exposure to it. But there’s this problem. When you take someone who’s afraid of roaches and make her repeatedly get in a box filled with roaches, she might decide to find a new psychiatrist. Or, as the scientists say, you’ll have a “high rate of attrition.” Dr. Botella wondered if you could work out a compromise, where you simply project hordes of horrifying insects into the subject’s eyes. The study we read only had six participants, but all six of them seemed to come away from the experience with lessened phobias that were maintained over time. Of course, maybe they just said that to make Dr. Botella stop.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 7 Augmented Reality: An Alternative to Fixing Reality, p. 179 of 358, 43%.
In Pokémon GO, a “PokeStop” (or a place where you can stop to get free items for the game) ended up in a Holocaust Museum, and the museum had to request that players please stop playing the game in a museum meant to honor victims of the Holocaust. Later, people were literally looking for Pokémon at Auschwitz. At first we wondered if this was a narrow oversight pertaining to Holocaust memorials. Then we saw an article in the Telegraph titled “HIROSHIMA ANGER OVER POKÉMON AT ATOM BOMB MEMORIAL PARK.” So . . . at least they’re equal opportunity offenders.
“In Pokémon GO, a “PokeStop” (or a place where you can stop to get free items for the game) ended up in a Holocaust Museum, and the museum had to request that players please stop playing the game in a museum meant to honor victims of the Holocaust.
Later, people were literally looking for Pokémon at Auschwitz. At first we wondered if this was a narrow oversight pertaining to Holocaust memorials. Then we saw an article in the Telegraph titled “HIROSHIMA ANGER OVER POKÉMON AT ATOM BOMB MEMORIAL PARK.” So . . . at least they’re equal opportunity offenders.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 7 Augmented Reality: An Alternative to Fixing Reality, p. 182 of 358, 44%.
One company called Illusio made a program that allows virtual breast augmentation. Women interested in breast surgery can see a virtual “reflection” of their breasts. The virtual breasts could be adjusted along metrics such as perkiness and amount of cleavage. Perhaps they should consider selling a home version.
So, writing this chapter we found ourselves in the position of trying to explain how an inanimate sequence of on and off switches can run a video game or play a song or operate an eerily human-seeming chatbot (really, it’s weird, isn’t it?), while also explaining all sorts of quantum oddities, like generalized rules of probability involving negative and even complex numbers. We had this tortured explanation about building a Schrödinger’s cat setup, then daisy-chaining it to more Schrödinger’s cats, where if cat A was alive cat B was dead, unless cat C . . . you know . . . et cetera. After
...more
“So, writing this chapter we found ourselves in the position of trying to explain how an inanimate sequence of on and off switches can run a video game or play a song or operate an eerily human-seeming chatbot (really, it’s weird, isn’t it?), while also explaining all sorts of quantum oddities, like generalized rules of probability involving negative and even complex numbers. We had this tortured explanation about building a Schrödinger’s cat setup, then daisy-chaining it to more Schrödinger’s cats, where if cat A was alive cat B was dead, unless cat C . . . you know . . . et cetera. After writing about two thirds of the chapter, it was already far longer than the others, and that was before we added what we optimistically call “humor.”
Thus, unlike Schrödinger’s cat, this chapter definitely became dead.
The shame of it is that we absolutely fell in love with this field of study. When quantum computing is publicly discussed, it’s mostly because a quantum computer could crack the most common method of digital data encryption. Quantum computing has other applications, like certain forms of database searching or calculating the behavior of atomic-scale objects, which would be very important for research science.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 12 Conclusion, Grave 4: Quantum Computing, pp. 329-330 of 358, 81%.
But it also might have implications for our understanding of what existence is. This is possible because the way it works actually involves many universes (or at least it sure looks like it does).
“But it also might have implications for our understanding of what existence is. This is possible because the way it works actually involves many universes (or at least it sure looks like it does).”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 12 Conclusion, Grave 4: Quantum Computing, p. 330 of 358, 81%.
As Dr. Scott Aaronson,* a major figure in the current field, told us what’s compelling about quantum computing is that it requires you to really actually accept what quantum mechanics tells us. All that stuff you may have read in a popular science treatment of quantum mechanics about particles in two places at once and a thing not being determined until you measure it—it’s not just for theorizing or amusement. In a quantum computer, that bizarre stuff is the real guts of a machine that produces results that you can print off on an inkjet and hold in your hands.
“As Dr. Scott Aaronson,* a major figure in the current field, told us what’s compelling about quantum computing is that it requires you to really actually accept what quantum mechanics tells us. All that stuff you may have read in a popular science treatment of quantum mechanics about particles in two places at once and a thing not being determined until you measure it—it’s not just for theorizing or amusement. In a quantum computer, that bizarre stuff is the real guts of a machine that produces results that you can print off on an inkjet and hold in your hands.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 12 Conclusion, Grave 4: Quantum Computing, p. 330 of 358, 81%.
Indeed, Dr. David Deutsch, the founder of the field, believes that the existence* of algorithms that can only run on quantum computers in our universe proves the existence of infinite universes. He issues a challenge to other scientists in his book The Fabric of Reality, asking them to explain the successful performance of a particular method of number factorization that is probably impossible for traditional computers to do for large numbers: “So, if the visible universe were the extent of physical reality, physical reality would not even remotely contain the resources required to factorize
...more
“Indeed, Dr. David Deutsch, the founder of the field, believes that the existence* of algorithms that can only run on quantum computers in our universe proves the existence of infinite universes. He issues a challenge to other scientists in his book The Fabric of Reality, asking them to explain the successful performance of a particular method of number factorization that is probably impossible for traditional computers to do for large numbers: “So, if the visible universe were the extent of physical reality, physical reality would not even remotely contain the resources required to factorize such a large number. Who did factorize it, then? How, and where, was the computation performed?””
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 12 Conclusion, Grave 4: Quantum Computing, p. 330 of 358, 81%.
A device for solving math and physics problems that could, by the mere virtue of its existence, have implications for our understanding of the entire cosmos? That’s as beautiful as it gets.
Of quantum computing, Weinersmith exclaimed,
“A device for solving math and physics problems that could, by the mere virtue of its existence, have implications for our understanding of the entire cosmos? That’s as beautiful as it gets.”
Reference
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Zach Weinersmith (2017, Oct. 7). “Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything.” Kindle Edition. Chapter 12 Conclusion, Grave 4: Quantum Computing, p. 330 of 358, 81%.
Jason liked this

