Decomposition Rule #1: Decompositions should leverage what you are better at estimating or data you can obtain (i.e., don’t decompose into quantities that are even more speculative than the first). Decomposition Rule #2: Check your decomposition against a directly estimated range with a simulation, as we just did in the outage example. You might decide to toss the decomposition if it produces results you think are absurd, or you might decide your original range is the one that needs updating.
