How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk

by Douglas W. Hubbard

Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The “true” outcome/state/ result/value is not known. Measurement of Uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. For example: “There is a 20% chance we will have a data breach sometime in the next five years.” Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome. Measurement of Risk: A set of possibilities, each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses. For example: “We believe there is a 10% chance that a data breach will result in a legal liability exceeding $10 million.”