Ed Carmichael

37%
Flag icon
To check that tendency, turn the question on its head and ask, “Will the South African government deny the Dalai Lama for six months?” That tiny wording change encourages you to lean in the opposite direction and look for reasons why it would deny the visa—a desire not to anger its biggest trading partner being a rather big one.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Rate this book
Clear rating
Open Preview