Ed Carmichael

20%
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A forecast that is wrong to the greatest possible extent—saying there is a 100% chance that something will happen and it doesn’t, every time—scores a disastrous 2.0, as far from The Truth as it is possible to get.
Ed Carmichael
Brier scores for forecasting range from 0 - good - to 2 - dead wrong
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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