They had all agreed to use “serious possibility” in the NIE so Kent asked each person, in turn, what he thought it meant. One analyst said it meant odds of about 80 to 20, or four times more likely than not that there would be an invasion. Another thought it meant odds of 20 to 80—exactly the opposite. Other answers were scattered between those extremes. Kent was floored.
You have to clarify what people mean when they give non-numerical odds
