Ed Carmichael

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He has no expertise in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to say the least. But he didn’t need any to get off to a great start on this question. Thinking like Fermi, Bill unpacked the question by asking himself “What would it take for the answer to be yes? What would it take for it to be no?”
Ed Carmichael
Cool method to answer a question - what would it take for the answer to be yes? What would it take for the answer to be no? What would have to be true?
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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