Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

Three days after terrorists flew jets into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the US government demanded that the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan hand over Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda terrorists. The Taliban said they would comply if the US government produced satisfactory evidence of al-Qaeda’s guilt. The United States prepared for invasion. Still the Taliban refused to hand over bin Laden. Finally, almost a month after 9/11, the United States attacked. Today, when we refer to the black swan of 9/11, we mean the attacks plus the consequences, which include the invasion of Afghanistan. But that sequence of events could arguably have gone differently. Bin Laden and al-Qaeda were Arabic-speaking foreigners in Afghanistan and the Taliban could have decided that sheltering them just wasn’t worth incurring the wrath of the world’s sole superpower right when they were on the cusp of finally destroying the Northern Alliance, their hated rivals.

Great summary of what transpired post 9/11