Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

After World War II, Eisenhower was immensely popular and both parties all but begged him to accept their nominations for the presidency. President Truman even offered to step aside for him. Eisenhower always refused. He sincerely did not want the job. But as the race for the 1952 election shaped up, it became clear that the Republican nomination, and likely the presidency, would be won by an isolationist who promised to bring all American troops home to “the Gibraltar of freedom.” Eisenhower thought this would be a catastrophe that he—and he alone—could stop. “He wanted what was best for his country,” one biographer wrote, “and in the end he decided that he was the best and would have to serve.”29 Clearly, he had no shortage of self-regard.