it is very likely that there are early indications that a building is about to collapse in a fire or that an infant will soon show obvious symptoms of infection,” Kahneman and Klein wrote. “On the other hand, it is unlikely that there is publicly available information that could be used to predict how well a particular stock will do—if such valid information existed, the price of the stock would already reflect it. Thus, we have more reason to trust the intuition of an experienced fireground commander about the stability of a building, or the intuitions of a nurse about an infant, than to
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The intuition of experts can be valuable, but not necessarily
