Ed Carmichael

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So the question “Was the IC’s judgment reasonable?” is challenging. But it’s a snap to answer “Was the IC’s judgment correct?” As I noted in chapter 2, a situation like that tempts us with a bait and switch: replace the tough question with the easy one, answer it, and then sincerely believe that we have answered the tough question.
Ed Carmichael
The invasion of Iraq may NOT have been a bad decision in this light - it ma have been reasonable given the evidence that was available
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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