If superforecasting is a job for three-standard-deviation MENSA-certified geniuses—the top 1%—then the vast majority of us can never qualify. So why bother trying?
So to get to the top 1%you have to be 3standard deviations away from the mean; remember standard deviation is the square root of the average of the sum of squares (squared and then square root taken to get out negative numbers) of how far individual values are from the mean
