Ed Carmichael

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Almost anything “may” happen. I can confidently forecast that the Earth may be attacked by aliens tomorrow. And if it isn’t? I’m not wrong. Every “may” is accompanied by an asterisk and the words “or may not” are buried in the fine print. But the interviewer didn’t notice the fine print in Ferguson’s forecast, so he did not ask him to clarify.
Ed Carmichael
Make it a practice to ask people to quantity their predictions
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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