Ed Carmichael

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What matters far more to the superforecasters than Bayes’ theorem is Bayes’ core insight of gradually getting closer to the truth by constantly updating in proportion to the weight of the evidence.
Ed Carmichael
So Bayes’ theorem is a way of constantly getting closer to the truth by constantly updating your forecasts in proportion to the weight of the evidence
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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