Ed Carmichael

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When Bill Flack makes a judgment, he often explains his thinking to his teammates, as David Rogg did, and he asks them to critique it. In part, he does that because he hopes they’ll spot flaws and offer their own perspectives. But writing his judgment down is also a way of distancing himself from it, so he can step back and scrutinize it: “It’s an auto-feedback thing,” he says. “Do I agree with this? Are there holes in this? Should I be looking for something else to fill this in? Would I be convinced by this if I were somebody else?”
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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