Even the extremizing tweak is based on a pretty simple insight: When you combine the judgments of a large group of people to calculate the “wisdom of the crowd” you collect all the relevant information that is dispersed among all those people. But none of those people has access to all that information. One person knows only some of it, another knows some more, and so on. What would happen if every one of those people were given all the information? They would become more confident—raising their forecasts closer to 100% or zero. If you then calculated the “wisdom of the crowd” it too would be
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