But people do judge. And they always judge the same way: they look at which side of “maybe”—50%—the probability was on. If the forecast said there was a 70% chance of rain and it rains, people think the forecast was right; if it doesn’t rain, they think it was wrong. This simple mistake is extremely common.
I made this mistake in the 2016 US presidential elections. Just because the polls gave trump a 10% chance of winning doesn’t means they were wrong
