This sort of storytelling can be very compelling, particularly when the available details are much richer than what I’ve provided here. But superforecasters wouldn’t bother with any of that, at least not at first. The first thing they would do is find out what percentage of American households own a pet.
So it may be better not to concern yourself with individual details and more focus in the macro trends first - to determine how statistically likely something is - don’t get pulled into the storytelling
