Ed Carmichael

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And Galen was untroubled by doubt. Each outcome confirmed he was right, no matter how equivocal the evidence might look to someone less wise than the master. “All who drink of this treatment recover in a short time, except those whom it does not help, who all die,” he wrote. “It is obvious, therefore, that it fails only in incurable cases.”
Ed Carmichael
Wow - staggering that this was once commonly accepted. Before the scientific method, things were chaos
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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