Black Box Thinking: Growth Mindset and the Secrets of High Performance

by Matthew Syed

When the probability of error is high, the importance of learning from mistakes is more essential, not less.

‘You can have the best procedures in the world but they won’t work unless you change attitudes towards error.’

Intelligence and seniority when allied to cognitive dissonance and ego is one of the most formidable barriers to progress in the world today.

Systems and organisations that foster the growth of knowledge of all kinds will dominate. This is the insight that the high-tech world has been gravitating towards and which much of the rest of the world, with only a few heroic exceptions, is studiously resisting.

As the great British economist John Maynard Keynes put it: ‘When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?’

But, as with medieval bloodletting, observational stats do not always provide reliable data. Often, you need to test the counterfactual.

Marginal gains is not about making small changes and hoping they fly. Rather, it is about breaking down a big problem into small parts in order to rigorously establish what works and what doesn’t.

It is no good creating the most beautiful products if you produce them shoddily. It is no good having the most innovative engineering solution if the consumers can’t be certain it will be delivered on time. It is no good if inconsistent production means that a great idea is not translated into a polished product. The original idea is only 2 per cent of the journey. You mustn’t neglect the rest.

we should not insulate ourselves from failure; rather, we should engage with it.