Superforecasting does require minimum levels of intelligence, numeracy, and knowledge of the world, but anyone who reads serious books about psychological research probably has those prerequisites. So what is it that elevates forecasting to superforecasting? As with the experts who had real foresight in my earlier research, what matters most is how the forecaster thinks. I’ll describe this in detail, but broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior
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