Ned Holt

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One involves the provocative phrase “diversity trumps ability,” coined by my colleague (and former competitor in the IARPA tournament) Scott Page.10 As we have seen, the aggregation of different perspectives is a potent way to improve judgment, but the key word is different. Combining uniform perspectives only produces more of the same, while slight variation will produce slight improvement.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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