Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

He is actively open-minded. Active open-mindedness (AOM) is a concept coined by the psychologist Jonathan Baron, who has an office next to mine at the University of Pennsylvania. Baron’s test for AOM asks whether you agree or disagree with statements like: People should take into consideration evidence that goes against their beliefs. It is more useful to pay attention to those who disagree with you than to pay attention to those who agree. Changing your mind is a sign of weakness. Intuition is the best guide in making decisions. It is important to persevere in your beliefs even when evidence is brought to bear against them. Quite predictably, superforecasters score highly on Baron’s test. But more important, superforecasters illustrate the concept. They walk the talk. For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.