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Even John Maynard Keynes—he may not have said those famous words but he really did urge people to change their minds in light of changing facts—felt that “day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and nonsignificant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market.”12
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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