This sort of primal thinking goes a long way to explaining why so many people have a poor grasp of probability. Some of it can be chalked up to simple ignorance and misunderstanding—like people who think that “a 70% chance of rain in Los Angeles” means “it will rain 70% of the day but not the other 30%” or “it will rain in 70% of Los Angeles but not the other 30%” or “70% of forecasters think it will rain but 30% don’t.”
