superforecasters not only paid attention to the time frame in the question but also thought about other possible time frames—and thereby shook off a hard-to-shake bias. I wish I could take credit for that. Our advanced training guidelines urge forecasters to mentally tinker with “the question asked” and explore how their answers to a timing question might change if the cutoff date were six months out instead of twelve, or if the target price for oil were 10% lower, or some other relevant variation.
