Combining uniform perspectives only produces more of the same, while slight variation will produce slight improvement. It is the diversity of the perspectives that makes the magic work. Superteams were fairly diverse—because superforecasters are fairly diverse—but we didn’t design them with that in mind. We put ability first. If Page is right, we might have gotten even better results if we had made diversity the key determinant of team membership and let ability take care of itself. Again, though, flag the false dichotomy. The choice is not ability or diversity; it is fine-tuning the mixes of
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