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Daniel Kahneman makes the point with a characteristically elegant thought experiment. He invites us to consider three leaders whose impact on the twentieth century was massive—Hitler, Stalin, and Mao. Each came to power backed by a political movement that would never have accepted a female leader, but each man’s origins can be traced to an unfertilized egg that had a 50% chance of being fertilized by different sperm cells and producing a female zygote that would become a female fetus and finally a female baby. That means there was only a 12.5% chance that all three leaders would be born male, ...more
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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