Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

If you have to plan for a future beyond the forecasting horizon, plan for surprise. That means, as Danzig advises, planning for adaptability and resilience. Imagine a scenario in which reality gives you a smack in the ear and consider how you would respond. Then assume reality will give you a kick in the shin and think about dealing with that. “Plans are useless,” Eisenhower said about preparing for battle, “but planning is indispensable.”11 Taleb has taken this argument further and called for critical systems—like international banking and nuclear weapons—to be made “antifragile,” meaning they are not only resilient to shocks but strengthened by them. In principle, I agree. But a point often overlooked is that preparing for surprises—whether we are shooting for resilience or antifragility—is costly.