When the what-iffery implied that their failed forecast would have turned out right—for example, if the coup against Gorbachev in 1991 had been better planned and the plotters had been less drunk and better organized, the Communist Party would still be in power—the experts tended to welcome the what-if tale like an old friend. But when the scenarios implied that their correct forecast could easily have turned out wrong, they dismissed it as speculative. So experts were open to “I was almost right” scenarios but rejected “I was almost wrong” alternatives.
