Wally Bock

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The Italian American physicist Enrico Fermi—a central figure in the invention of the atomic bomb—concocted this little brainteaser decades before the invention of the Internet. And Fermi’s students did not have the Chicago yellow pages at hand. They had nothing. And yet Fermi expected them to come up with a reasonably accurate estimate.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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