Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

That is a very smart move. Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgment, produces a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.13 The same effect was produced simply by letting several weeks pass before asking people to make a second estimate. This approach, built on the “wisdom of the crowd” concept, has been called “the crowd within.” The billionaire financier George Soros exemplifies it. A key part of his success, he has often said, is his mental habit of stepping back from himself so he can judge his own thinking and offer a different perspective—to himself.14