The key word in Kent’s work is estimate. As Kent wrote, “estimating is what you do when you do not know.”9 And as Kent emphasized over and over, we never truly know what will happen next. Hence forecasting is all about estimating the likelihood of something happening, which Kent and his colleagues did for many years at the Office of National Estimates—an obscure but extraordinarily influential bureau whose job was to draw on all information available to the CIA, synthesize it, and forecast anything and everything that might help the top officeholders in the US government decide what to do
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