Forecasts aren’t like lottery tickets that you buy and file away until the big draw. They are judgments that are based on available information and that should be updated in light of changing information. If new polls show a candidate has surged into a comfortable lead, you should boost the probability that the candidate will win. If a competitor unexpectedly declares bankruptcy, revise expected sales accordingly. The IARPA tournament was no different. After Bill Flack did all his difficult initial work and concluded there was a 60% chance that polonium would be detected in Yasser Arafat’s
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