Add it all up and we are ready to roll. Like Archie Cochrane and other pioneers of evidence-based medicine, we must run carefully crafted experiments. Assemble forecasters. Ask them large numbers of questions with precise time frames and unambiguous language. Require that forecasts be expressed using numerical probability scales. And wait for time to pass. If the researchers have done their jobs, the results will be clear. The data can be analyzed and the key questions—How good are the forecasters? Who are the best? What sets them apart?—can be answered.
