IARPA knew this could happen when it bankrolled the tournament, which is why a decision like that is so unusual. Testing may obviously be in the interest of an organization, but organizations consist of people who have interests of their own, most notably preserving and enhancing a comfortable status quo. Just as famous, well-remunerated pundits are loath to put their reputations at risk by having their accuracy publicly tested, so too are the power players inside organizations unlikely to try forecasting tournaments if it means putting their own judgment to the test. Bob in the CEO suite does
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