If it’s true that probabilistic thinking is essential to accurate forecasting, and it-was-meant-to-happen thinking undermines probabilistic thinking, we should expect superforecasters to be much less inclined to see things as fated. To test this, we probed their reactions to pro-fate statements like these: Events unfold according to God’s plan. Everything happens for a reason. There are no accidents or coincidences. We also asked them about pro-probability statements like these: Nothing is inevitable. Even major events like World War II or 9/11 could have turned out very differently.
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