Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

“Clarification of the enemy situation is an obvious necessity, but waiting for information in a tense situation is seldom the sign of strong leadership—more often of weakness,” declared the command manual of the Wehrmacht (the German military) published in 1935 and in force throughout World War II. “The first criterion in war remains decisive action.”5 The Wehrmacht also drew a sharp line between deliberation and implementation: once a decision has been made, the mindset changes. Forget uncertainty and complexity. Act! “If one wishes to attack, then one must do so with resoluteness. Half measures are out of place,” Moltke wrote. Officers must conduct themselves with “calm and assurance” to “earn the trust of the soldier.” There is no place for doubt. “Only strength and confidence carry the units with them and produce success.” The wise officer knows the battlefield is shrouded in a “fog of uncertainty” but “at least one thing must be certain: one’s own decision. One must adhere to it and not allow oneself to be dissuaded by the enemy’s actions until this has become unavoidably necessary.”6