Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

While Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky were documenting System 1’s failings, another psychologist, Gary Klein, was examining decision making among professionals like the commanders of firefighting teams, and discovering that snap judgments can work astonishingly well. One commander told Klein about going to a routine kitchen fire and ordering his men to stand in the living room and hose down the flames. The fire subsided at first but roared back. The commander was baffled. He also noticed the living room was surprisingly hot given the size of the kitchen fire. And why was it so quiet? A fire capable of generating that much heat should make more noise. A vague feeling of unease came over the commander and he ordered everyone out of the house. Just as the firefighters reached the street, the floor in the living room collapsed—because the real source of the fire was in the basement, not the kitchen. How had the commander known they were in terrible danger? He told Klein he had ESP (extrasensory perception), but that was just a story he told himself to cover up the fact that he didn’t know how he knew. He just knew—the hallmark of an intuitive judgment.