But look at the style of thinking that produces superforecasting and consider how it squares with what leaders must deliver. How can leaders be confident, and inspire confidence, if they see nothing as certain? How can they be decisive and avoid “analysis paralysis” if their thinking is so slow, complex, and self-critical? How can they act with relentless determination if they readily adjust their thinking in light of new information or even conclude they were wrong? And underlying superforecasting is a spirit of humility—a sense that the complexity of reality is staggering, our ability to
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