Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

You don’t have to be the head of the DIA to find those reports. Googling “global conflict trends” will suffice. But Flynn saw no need to do so before drawing his sweeping conclusion and sharing it. Why not? The same reason Peggy Noonan saw no need to consult the data on other former presidents’ approval ratings when she judged the meaning of President Bush’s rising appeal. At work in each case was Kahneman’s WYSIATI—What You See Is All There Is—the mother of all cognitive illusions, the egocentric worldview that prevents us from seeing any world beyond the one visible from the tips of our noses. Flynn saw mountains of bad news on his desk every day, and his conclusion felt right—so That Was All There Was. As a lifelong intelligence officer, Flynn knew the importance of checking assumptions, no matter how true they feel, but he didn’t because it didn’t feel like an assumption. It felt true. It’s the oldest trick in the psychological book and Flynn fell for it.