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those who got the irrelevant information lost confidence. Why? With nothing to go on but evidence that fits their stereotype of a good student or a child abuser, the signal feels strong and clear—and our judgment reflects that. But add irrelevant information and we can’t help but see Robert or David more as a person than a stereotype, which weakens the fit.10 Psychologists call this the dilution effect,
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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