Mark Frauenfelder

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Consider the 1942 argument of General John DeWitt, a strong supporter of the internment of Japanese Americans: “The very fact that no sabotage has taken place to date is a disturbing and confirming indication that such action will be taken.”6—or to put that more bluntly, “The fact that what I expected to happen didn’t happen proves that it will.”
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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