Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test.

“All models are wrong,” the statistician George Box observed, “but some are useful.”

replacing “Was it a good decision?” with “Did it have a good outcome?”—is both popular and pernicious.