Lauri Antalainen

43%
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Instead, they tended to stick to the tens, meaning they might say something was 30% likely, or 40%, but not 35%, much less 37%. Superforecasters were much more granular. Fully one-third of their forecasts used the single percentage point scale, meaning they would think carefully and decide that the chance of something happening was, say, 3% rather than 4%.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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