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“I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition,
“You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal
Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs.
When physicians finally accepted that their experience and perceptions were not reliable means of determining whether a treatment works, they turned to scientific testing—and medicine finally started to make rapid advances.
broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus.
in most cases statistical algorithms beat subjective judgment,
when you have a well-validated statistical algorithm, use it
Experiments are what people do when they aren’t sure what the truth is.
Galen was untroubled by doubt. Each outcome confirmed he was right, no matter how equivocal the evidence might look to someone less wise than the master.
“Doubt is not a fearful thing,” Feynman observed, “but a thing of very great value.
much more than intuition is needed before we draw firm conclusions.
the best evidence that a hypothesis is true is often an experiment designed to prove the hypothesis is false, but which fails to do so.
we have to interpret the meaning of the Brier scores, which requires two more things: benchmarks and comparability.
pragmatic experts who drew on many analytical tools, with the choice of tool hinging on the particular problem they faced. These experts gathered as much information from as many sources as they could. When thinking, they often shifted mental gears, sprinkling their speech with transition markers such as “
“but,” “although,” and “on the other hand.” They talked about possibilities and probabilities, not certainties. And while no one likes to say “I was wrong,” these experts more readily admitted it and changed their minds.
As anyone who has done media training knows, the first rule is “keep it simple, stupid.
Now look at how foxes approach forecasting. They deploy not one analytical idea but many and seek out information not from one source but many. Then they synthesize it all into a single conclusion.
don’t believe until you test.
“rigorously test current and proposed methods under conditions that are as realistic as possible.
Did you consider alternative hypotheses? Did you look for contrary evidence?
Quit pretending you know things you don’t and start running experiments.
single out an extraordinarily successful person, show that it was extremely unlikely that the person could do what he or she did, and conclude that luck could not be the explanation.
A few minutes with Google
tells me about 62% of American households own pets. That’s the outside view here. Starting with the outside view means I will start by estimating that there is a 62% chance the Renzettis have a pet. Then I will turn to the inside view—all those details about the Renzettis—and use them to adjust that initial 62% up or down.
a better anchor is a distinct advantage.
writing his judgment down is also a way of distancing himself from it, so he can step back and scrutinize it: “It’s an auto-feedback thing,
“Do I agree with this? Are there holes in this? Should I be looking for something else to fill this in?
Would I be convinced by this if I were ...
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A key part of his success, he has often said, is his mental habit of stepping back from himself so he can judge his own thinking and offer a different perspective—to himself.
personality psychology, one of the “Big Five” traits is “openness to experience,
So he created a database containing hundreds of information sources—from the New York Times to obscure blogs
People should take into consideration evidence that goes against their
beliefs. It is more useful to pay attention to those who disagree with you than to pay attention to those who agree. Changing your mind is a sign of weakness. Intuition is the best guide in making decisions. It is important to persevere in your beliefs even when evidence is brought to bear against them.
When Bill Flack is asked to forecast something like currency exchange rates he will go into historical changes in the rate and build a Monte Carlo model based on that.
Rubin’s probabilistic thinking was laid out in a 1998 New York Times feature story.
Instead, they tended to stick to the tens, meaning they might say something was 30% likely, or 40%, but not 35%, much less 37%. Superforecasters were much more granular. Fully one-third of their forecasts used the single percentage point scale, meaning they would think carefully and decide that the chance of something happening was, say, 3% rather than 4%.
“there is no such thing as failure. Failure is just life trying to move us in another direction….Learn from every mistake because every experience, encounter, and particularly your mistakes are there to teach you and force you into being who you are.
If he makes a forecast about Syrian refugees, for example, the first thing
he will do is set an alert for “Syrian refugees” and “UNHCR,” which will net any news that mentions both Syrian refugees and the UN agency that monitors their numbers.
In the third season alone, Devyn made 2,271 forecasts on 140 questions. That’s more than 16 forecasts, on average, for each question.
Social psychologists have long known that getting people to publicly commit to a belief is a great way to freeze it in place, making it resistant to change. The stronger the commitment, the greater the resistance.8
This suggests that superforecasters may have a surprising advantage: they’re not experts or professionals, so they have little ego invested in each forecast. Except
For Keynes, failure was an opportunity to learn—to identify mistakes, spot new alternatives, and try again.
Try, fail, analyze,
adjust, try again:
Fortune favors the prepared mind.
experience isn’t enough. It must be accompanied by clear feedback.
Forecasters who use ambiguous language and rely on flawed memories to retrieve old forecasts don’t get clear feedback, which makes it impossible to learn from experience.
Grit is passionate perseverance of long-term goals, even in the face of frustration and failure. Married with a growth mindset, it is a potent force for personal progress.
“Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. Leave the rest to God.
