The Art of Thinking Clearly

by Rolf Dobelli

outcome bias:

We tend to evaluate decisions based on the result rather than on the decision process.

“historian ...

plethora

In conclusion: Never judge a decision purely by its result,

A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa.

remember why you chose what you did.

Then you would do well to stick with that method, even if you didn’t strike it lucky last time.

paradox of choice.

With such a wide range, customers could not come to a decision, so they bought nothing.

disposal.

Finally, large selection leads to discontent. How can you be sure you are making the right choice when two hundred options surround and confound you?

So what can you do? Think carefully about what you want before you inspect existing offers.

Write down these criteria and stick to them rigidly.

Instead, learn to love a “good” choice.

“There’s nothing more effective in selling anything than getting the customer to believe, really believe, that you like him and care about him.”

The more we like someone, the more inclined we are to buy from or help that person.

In short, the more similar, the better.

Mirroring is a standard technique in sales to get exactly this effect.

So-called multilevel marketing (selling through personal networks) works solely because of the liking bias.

Amiability

We can safely say that we are better at collecting things than at casting them off.

The would-be owner is suddenly willing to pay much more than planned, and any withdrawal from the bidding is perceived as a loss—

fervor

Keep in mind that it can recoup this (or more) in the blink of an eye. 24

exclaimed

But since people spend about 90 percent of their time thinking about others,

Calamity

Conformity

reckless decisions

brigade.

Members of a close-knit group cultivate team spirit by (unconsciously) building illusions.

unanimity:

exclusion

Groupthink

euphoria

if you lead a group, appoint someone as devil’s advocate.

She will not be the most popular member of the team, but she might be the most important.

Neglect of Probability

We lack an intuitive grasp of probability.

neglect of probability, and it leads to errors in decision making.

Scarcity Error

But the blue one had an advantage over the others—it was one of a kind. I had to laugh at how childish children are!

The “recommended retail price” printed on many products is nothing more than an anchor.

pitfalls.

apprehension

consecutive

Inductive thinking can have devastating results.

provisional.

Benjamin Franklin said, “Nothing is certain but death and taxes.”