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The confirmation bias is the mother of all misconceptions. It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions.
intact.”
We deal mostly in assumptions, and the more nebulous these are, the stronger the confirmation bias.
philanthropists
misanthropes,
illiterates
shrewd
divergent
To fight against the confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs—
disconfirming
Bow
Authority Bias
celestial
the contrast effect:
We judge something to be beautiful, expensive, or large if we have something ugly, cheap, or small in front of us.
The contrast effect is at work in other places, too. Experiments show that people are willing to walk an extra ten minutes to save $10 on food. But those same people wouldn’t dream of walking ten minutes to save $10 on a $1,000 suit.
An irrational move because ten minutes is ten minutes, and $10 is $10. Logically, you should walk back in both cases or not at all.
we fail to notice how our money disappears. It constantly loses its value, but we do not notice because inflation happens over time.
The contrast effect can ruin your whole life: A charming woman marries a fairly average man.
The availability bias says this: We create a picture of the world using the examples that most easily come to mind. This is idiotic, of course, because in reality, things don’t happen more frequently just because we can conceive of them more easily.
availability bias.
In addition, people prefer information that is easy to obtain, be it economic data or recipes. They make decisions based on this information rather than on more relevant but harder-to-obtain information—often with disastrous results.
derivative
appendicitis
wit’s
In conclusion: If someone says, “It’ll get worse before it gets better,” you should hear alarm bells ringing. But
muddle,
intricate
Whenever you hear a story, ask yourself: Who is the sender, what are his intentions, and what did he hide under the rug?
laypeople
Don’t Take News Anchors Seriously
And you’ve got to play within your own circle of competence.”
In conclusion: Be on the lookout for chauffeur knowledge.
ringm...
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True experts recognize the limits of what they know and what they do not know.
If they find themselves outside their circle of competence, they keep quiet or simply say, “I don’t know.”
Illusion of Control
gesticulating
The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that we can influence something over which we have absolutely no sway.
“placebo buttons”
Therefore, focus on the few things of importance that you can really influence. For everything else: Que sera, sera.
infestation,
People respond to incentives by doing what is in their best interests.
Good incentive systems comprise both intent and reward.
arduous
was win-win.
regression to mean.
castigated.
fallacy
grooming.
