Alok Kejriwal

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If you said you were 100% confident on any answer, you must get it right. Getting even one 100% confident answer wrong is sufficient evidence that you are overconfident. Remarkably, just over 15% of responses where the stated confidence was 100% turned out to be wrong and some individuals (we will see shortly) would get a third or more of their “certain” answers wrong.
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
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